The current profile of where our energy comes from has nothing to do with the long term prospects. There’s a lot of progress to be made with solar, especially regarding the price of modules (but also in light-to-electricity efficiency), while we’re already near the peak of what we are able to accomplish with fossil fuels.
Edit: I’d also be remiss if I didn’t emphasize what the 2.45 EROI (Energy return on investment) means—assuming that it is accurate and representative of the actual situation (which the nature of the source you provide doesn’t inspire confidence that it is correct). That means for every joule of energy used to manufacture and install a solar panel, 2.45 joules are returned over the lifetime of the installation (nb: it’s not clear to me that the source measured lifetime energy output). That means that in terms of energy, the panel represents a net gain, and even using nothing but solar panels as a source of energy, and assuming the figure you cite is correct, a civilization can easily bootstrap itself from a small civilization to a great, powerful civilization- and certainly being forced to fall back on a 2.45 EROI is far from causing a collapse of civilization as we know it (as some of your comments have implied). For things to get dicey, EROI would have to fall below 1 (arguably a value very close to 1 would cause a lot of turmoil, which might lead to destruction of value-generation, leading to a long-term decrease in welfare, but 2.4 is more than enough to recover from short-term setbacks)
The only reason why a 2.45 EROI would seem disappointing is from an economical perspective- oil rigs provide an EROI around ~10, so (ignoring externalities and potential benefits that may not be easily measured in terms of energy) it would be a stupid idea to invest in an energy source that offers 2.45 EROI when you have a 10x return available instead. But of course, externalities are a thing, and the externalities caused by fossil fuels are worse per joule than the externalities caused by solar; and the EROI of solar is expected to only go up, while the EROI of fossil fuels will be going down as they become more scarce- so at some point, there will come a point where the EROI of solar will be a good deal (and remember, 2.45 is still a good deal if the alternative is nothing- good enough to continue to improve the quality of our lives, build colonies on other celestial bodies, radically improve our transportation networks, and solve world hunger)
We’ve been trying to make solar work for a very long time. I can remember when there were solar panels on the White House roof (Reagan had them removed). Things that have underperformed for decades almost never take off.
Things that have underperformed for decades almost never take off.
That is pretty much the exact opposite of how technology actually works.
“We’ve been trying human flight since Da Vinci, but after decades of trying, we can conclude humans will never fly”
“We’ve been trying to cure smallpox for decades, but it’s still endemic, so we will never eradicate smallpox”
“We’ve been trying to turn lead into gold for centuries, so it must not be possible” (granted, this one is only physically possible now, I don’t think it’s economically viable, but my point stands)
In each of those cases, what worked was a fundamentally new approach. We didn’t breed leeches to the point where they could cure smallpox. Photovoltaics have been around since the 50s; if they were going to work at scale they’d have worked by now.
I think we’ve uncovered the basic disagreement and further discussion seems pointless.
The current profile of where our energy comes from has nothing to do with the long term prospects. There’s a lot of progress to be made with solar, especially regarding the price of modules (but also in light-to-electricity efficiency), while we’re already near the peak of what we are able to accomplish with fossil fuels.
Edit: I’d also be remiss if I didn’t emphasize what the 2.45 EROI (Energy return on investment) means—assuming that it is accurate and representative of the actual situation (which the nature of the source you provide doesn’t inspire confidence that it is correct). That means for every joule of energy used to manufacture and install a solar panel, 2.45 joules are returned over the lifetime of the installation (nb: it’s not clear to me that the source measured lifetime energy output). That means that in terms of energy, the panel represents a net gain, and even using nothing but solar panels as a source of energy, and assuming the figure you cite is correct, a civilization can easily bootstrap itself from a small civilization to a great, powerful civilization- and certainly being forced to fall back on a 2.45 EROI is far from causing a collapse of civilization as we know it (as some of your comments have implied). For things to get dicey, EROI would have to fall below 1 (arguably a value very close to 1 would cause a lot of turmoil, which might lead to destruction of value-generation, leading to a long-term decrease in welfare, but 2.4 is more than enough to recover from short-term setbacks)
The only reason why a 2.45 EROI would seem disappointing is from an economical perspective- oil rigs provide an EROI around ~10, so (ignoring externalities and potential benefits that may not be easily measured in terms of energy) it would be a stupid idea to invest in an energy source that offers 2.45 EROI when you have a 10x return available instead. But of course, externalities are a thing, and the externalities caused by fossil fuels are worse per joule than the externalities caused by solar; and the EROI of solar is expected to only go up, while the EROI of fossil fuels will be going down as they become more scarce- so at some point, there will come a point where the EROI of solar will be a good deal (and remember, 2.45 is still a good deal if the alternative is nothing- good enough to continue to improve the quality of our lives, build colonies on other celestial bodies, radically improve our transportation networks, and solve world hunger)
We’ve been trying to make solar work for a very long time. I can remember when there were solar panels on the White House roof (Reagan had them removed). Things that have underperformed for decades almost never take off.
That is pretty much the exact opposite of how technology actually works.
“We’ve been trying human flight since Da Vinci, but after decades of trying, we can conclude humans will never fly”
“We’ve been trying to cure smallpox for decades, but it’s still endemic, so we will never eradicate smallpox”
“We’ve been trying to turn lead into gold for centuries, so it must not be possible” (granted, this one is only physically possible now, I don’t think it’s economically viable, but my point stands)
In each of those cases, what worked was a fundamentally new approach. We didn’t breed leeches to the point where they could cure smallpox. Photovoltaics have been around since the 50s; if they were going to work at scale they’d have worked by now.
I think we’ve uncovered the basic disagreement and further discussion seems pointless.