Just wondering. Why are some so often convinced that the victory of China in the AGI race will lead to the end of humanity? The Chinese strategy seems to me much more focused on long terms. The most prominent experts give a 50% chance of AI in 2099 (https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/artificial-intelligence/book-review-architects-of-intelligence). And I can expect that the world in 80 years will be significantly different from the present. Well, you can call this a totalitarian hell, but I think that the probability of an existential disaster in this world will become less.
Why are some so often convinced that the victory of China in the AGI race will lead to the end of humanity?
I don’t think a Chinese world order will result in the end of humanity, but I do think it will make stuff like this much more common. I am interested in creating a future I would actually want to live in.
The most prominent experts give a 50% chance of AI in 2099
How much would you be willing to bet that AI will not exist in 2060, and at what odds?
but I think that the probability of an existential disaster in this world will become less.
Are you arguing that a victory for Chinese totalitarianism makes Human extinction less likely than a liberal world order?
I’m not sure that I can trust news sources that are interested in outlining China. In any case, this does not seem to stop the Chinese people from feeling happier than the US people. I cited this date just to contrast with your forecast. My intuition is more likely to point to AI in the 2050-2060 years. And yes, I expect that in 2050 it will be possible to monitor the behavior of each person in countries 24⁄7. I can’t say that it makes me happy, but I think that the vast majority will put up with this. I don’t believe in a liberal democratic utopia, but the end of the world seems unlikely to me.
And yes, I expect that in 2050 it will be possible to monitor the behavior of each person in countries 24⁄7. I can’t say that it makes me happy, but I think that the vast majority will put up with this. I don’t believe in a liberal democratic utopia, but the end of the world seems unlikely to me.
Call me a crazy optimist, but I think we can aim higher than: Yes, you will be monitored 24⁄7, but at least humanity won’t literally go extinct.
Just wondering. Why are some so often convinced that the victory of China in the AGI race will lead to the end of humanity? The Chinese strategy seems to me much more focused on long terms.
The most prominent experts give a 50% chance of AI in 2099 (https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/artificial-intelligence/book-review-architects-of-intelligence). And I can expect that the world in 80 years will be significantly different from the present. Well, you can call this a totalitarian hell, but I think that the probability of an existential disaster in this world will become less.
I don’t think a Chinese world order will result in the end of humanity, but I do think it will make stuff like this much more common. I am interested in creating a future I would actually want to live in.
How much would you be willing to bet that AI will not exist in 2060, and at what odds?
Are you arguing that a victory for Chinese totalitarianism makes Human extinction less likely than a liberal world order?
I’m not sure that I can trust news sources that are interested in outlining China.
In any case, this does not seem to stop the Chinese people from feeling happier than the US people.
I cited this date just to contrast with your forecast. My intuition is more likely to point to AI in the 2050-2060 years.
And yes, I expect that in 2050 it will be possible to monitor the behavior of each person in countries 24⁄7. I can’t say that it makes me happy, but I think that the vast majority will put up with this. I don’t believe in a liberal democratic utopia, but the end of the world seems unlikely to me.
Lots of happy people in China.
Call me a crazy optimist, but I think we can aim higher than: Yes, you will be monitored 24⁄7, but at least humanity won’t literally go extinct.
I meant the results of such polls: https://www.thatsmags.com/china/post/15129/happy-planet-index-china-is-72nd-happiest-country-in-the-world. Well, it doesn’t matter.
I think that I could sleep better if everyone recognized the reduction of existential risks in a less free world.