Bayesians should update not just on the signs and portents that a person has reported to them, but also take into account the chain of cause and effect that led the person to report that evidence. So the paper is wrong and what Khoth said is sensible.
Eliezer’s post What evidence filtered evidence deals with this idea.
Bayesians should update not just on the signs and portents that a person has reported to them, but also take into account the chain of cause and effect that led the person to report that evidence. So the paper is wrong and what Khoth said is sensible.