No one really sees into Kremlin inner circle decision making but there are several plausible hypotheses:
1. Snack that went wrong As noted above, previous Putin wars (Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea) were in general short, victorious and boosted Putin’s popularity, and strengthened his regime. At least so far.
2. No democracy in our backyard A possible prospect of prosperous democratic Western-oriented Ukraine is probably the biggest threat to the long-term stability of Putin’s autocracy.
3. Time is not on our side (my favorite) Contrary to popular belief and the Russian propaganda narratives, sanctions do hurt. The ability of RF armed forces modernization as well as general Russians prospects for sustainable growth is effectively blocked. Hi-tech imports are prohibited and half of the Russian defense industry has ended up in a hostile country. The best time to do something is now, better than, say, ten years from now. Also, the west is still busy with covid, and oil and gas prices are rising. Nothing to wait for.
4. Place in history Russian history books in general praise the leaders who succeed in the task of significantly expanding the territory of the Russian state, whatever the cost. Ukraine definitely counts and Mr. Putin’s time is running out.
5. Victim of his own lies The problem with politicians is that over time they come to believe their own propaganda. So long you say Ukraine is no country and Ukrainians are no nation you lost track of what the truth is.
Doesn’t hold up. Anyone can see that a country with a 44 million population, with much more affinity and importance to NATO (therefore it would be easy to predict NATO’s military support, as it had been happening since 2014 anyway) wouldn’t be a snack like Crimea or Georgia.
That’s one of the strongest motives in my book.
I tend to agree, but why the need to “do something” at all? I.e., why the need to invade Ukraine?
Yes, the seek of nationalistic pride. Yet my intuition doubts that can be a much strong factor. I don’t think this is a one man’s job anyway.
Could be. But again, my intuition wouldn’t bet on it.
3. I tend to agree, but why the need to “do something” at all? I.e., why the need to invade Ukraine?
China, among other reasons. Considering that without Ukraine components Russia is unable to complete a helicopter, a guided bomb, several types of tanks, rockets, etc., strategic competition to China is out of the question.
Also, with Green Deal in the EU, Russia’s main source of export i.e. hydrocarbons is doomed in 10-15 yrs time.
The time is mercilessly against Putin and the window of opportunity was closing. Ironically, with this already lost war, he has achieved exactly the consequences he tried to avoid. Those are the decline of Russia from great power status, acceleration of EU energy revolution, and Russia’s de facto vassal status to China.
I totally thought at first that Russia would gobble up Ukraine in a few days. Now that it didn’t work out that way, everyone agrees that Putin made a bad move, presumably Putin too. And there will never be a satisfying explanation for why it was secretly a smart move, aside from counterfactuals. Had Ukraine indeed capitulated and in large part welcomed the Russian forces, the whole war would have been over by now, and Putin would in many ways have been proven right, and would have to weather some sanctions etc, but that worked ok for him last time. But it didn’t pan out that way. I agree with you that Putin is a smart guy, but that doesn’t mean he will never make mistakes, and mistakes never look smart after the fact.
No one really sees into Kremlin inner circle decision making but there are several plausible hypotheses:
1. Snack that went wrong
As noted above, previous Putin wars (Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea) were in general short, victorious and boosted Putin’s popularity, and strengthened his regime. At least so far.
2. No democracy in our backyard
A possible prospect of prosperous democratic Western-oriented Ukraine is probably the biggest threat to the long-term stability of Putin’s autocracy.
3. Time is not on our side (my favorite)
Contrary to popular belief and the Russian propaganda narratives, sanctions do hurt. The ability of RF armed forces modernization as well as general Russians prospects for sustainable growth is effectively blocked. Hi-tech imports are prohibited and half of the Russian defense industry has ended up in a hostile country. The best time to do something is now, better than, say, ten years from now. Also, the west is still busy with covid, and oil and gas prices are rising. Nothing to wait for.
4. Place in history
Russian history books in general praise the leaders who succeed in the task of significantly expanding the territory of the Russian state, whatever the cost. Ukraine definitely counts and Mr. Putin’s time is running out.
5. Victim of his own lies
The problem with politicians is that over time they come to believe their own propaganda. So long you say Ukraine is no country and Ukrainians are no nation you lost track of what the truth is.
Doesn’t hold up. Anyone can see that a country with a 44 million population, with much more affinity and importance to NATO (therefore it would be easy to predict NATO’s military support, as it had been happening since 2014 anyway) wouldn’t be a snack like Crimea or Georgia.
That’s one of the strongest motives in my book.
I tend to agree, but why the need to “do something” at all? I.e., why the need to invade Ukraine?
Yes, the seek of nationalistic pride. Yet my intuition doubts that can be a much strong factor. I don’t think this is a one man’s job anyway.
Could be. But again, my intuition wouldn’t bet on it.
China, among other reasons. Considering that without Ukraine components Russia is unable to complete a helicopter, a guided bomb, several types of tanks, rockets, etc., strategic competition to China is out of the question.
Also, with Green Deal in the EU, Russia’s main source of export i.e. hydrocarbons is doomed in 10-15 yrs time.
The time is mercilessly against Putin and the window of opportunity was closing. Ironically, with this already lost war, he has achieved exactly the consequences he tried to avoid. Those are the decline of Russia from great power status, acceleration of EU energy revolution, and Russia’s de facto vassal status to China.
I totally thought at first that Russia would gobble up Ukraine in a few days. Now that it didn’t work out that way, everyone agrees that Putin made a bad move, presumably Putin too. And there will never be a satisfying explanation for why it was secretly a smart move, aside from counterfactuals. Had Ukraine indeed capitulated and in large part welcomed the Russian forces, the whole war would have been over by now, and Putin would in many ways have been proven right, and would have to weather some sanctions etc, but that worked ok for him last time. But it didn’t pan out that way. I agree with you that Putin is a smart guy, but that doesn’t mean he will never make mistakes, and mistakes never look smart after the fact.