There are all these hard-to-evaluate pros and cons in the outcome-prediction process, but at the end of the day the pros seem to add up to a bit more than the cons.
An interesting topic and I disagree.
The problem is that some people see the question as symmetric: either we bail out the banks or we don’t. No reason to prefer a priori one course of action over the other. But my whole point is that we should prefer the simpler action a priori, and require much more concrete evidence in favor of the complex plan before we choose it.
I read your example and thought {X, X + bail out banks}. But since you are a bailout advocate I suppose you wouldn’t have brought up the example if you thought the complexity weighed in against your position. So I infer that you mean {bail out banks, do a more complex thing Y}. For many instances of Y that people are likely to propose I expect I would agree with your judgement, with the complexity being a significant factor.
But since you are a bailout advocate I suppose you wouldn’t have brought up the example if you thought the complexity weighed in against your position. So I infer that you mean {bail out banks, do a more complex thing Y}.
No, I’m against the bailout! My point is that the bailout is complex, therefore it should be penalized even if it seems to have a good predicted outcome. I see the choice as {X=no intervention, Y=bail out banks}; the former is far simpler, so it should be preferred.
No, I’m against the bailout! My point is that the bailout is complex, therefore it should be penalized even if it seems to have a good predicted outcome. I see the choice as {X=no intervention, Y=bail out banks}; the former is far simpler, so it should be preferred.
Ahh, ok. I read the “the pros seem to add up to a bit more than the cons” part and assumed the reverse.
An interesting topic and I disagree.
I read your example and thought {X, X + bail out banks}. But since you are a bailout advocate I suppose you wouldn’t have brought up the example if you thought the complexity weighed in against your position. So I infer that you mean {bail out banks, do a more complex thing Y}. For many instances of Y that people are likely to propose I expect I would agree with your judgement, with the complexity being a significant factor.
No, I’m against the bailout! My point is that the bailout is complex, therefore it should be penalized even if it seems to have a good predicted outcome. I see the choice as {X=no intervention, Y=bail out banks}; the former is far simpler, so it should be preferred.
Ahh, ok. I read the “the pros seem to add up to a bit more than the cons” part and assumed the reverse.