We hit a bit of an inflection point starting in late November ’25 where AI systems provide decent uplift to engineers. Maybe a 5–10% uplift in total factor productivity for frontier AI research lab engineers. So that’s directly applicable to the rate of algorithmic progress, training run supervision, etc. but not overall progress (because increasing programming productivity doesn’t directly increase compute).
I expect uplift will increase superlinearly (and increasingly so) with model time horizon, and model time horizon to increase hyperexponentially (current doubling time of 2–3 months). Uplift with Opus 4.6 (released Feb 5) is probably about 20%. So, uplift will increase hyperexponentially, more than doubling every few months then weeks...
Uplift should reach a few hundred percent by Q4 this year (although uplift will obsolesce pretty quickly as a concept as models increasingly work independently of engineers). Then, conditional on limited compute not being too much of a constraint (and I don’t think it will be) we’ll get a singularity-style intelligence explosion before end of year. Timeline is pretty sensitive to the exact values of all these parameters.
We hit a bit of an inflection point starting in late November ’25 where AI systems provide decent uplift to engineers. Maybe a 5–10% uplift in total factor productivity for frontier AI research lab engineers. So that’s directly applicable to the rate of algorithmic progress, training run supervision, etc. but not overall progress (because increasing programming productivity doesn’t directly increase compute).
I expect uplift will increase superlinearly (and increasingly so) with model time horizon, and model time horizon to increase hyperexponentially (current doubling time of 2–3 months). Uplift with Opus 4.6 (released Feb 5) is probably about 20%. So, uplift will increase hyperexponentially, more than doubling every few months then weeks...
Uplift should reach a few hundred percent by Q4 this year (although uplift will obsolesce pretty quickly as a concept as models increasingly work independently of engineers). Then, conditional on limited compute not being too much of a constraint (and I don’t think it will be) we’ll get a singularity-style intelligence explosion before end of year. Timeline is pretty sensitive to the exact values of all these parameters.