The most naive method would be to use the extrapolation based on the trend on OSWorld here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6KcP7tEe5hgvHbrSF/metr-how-does-time-horizon-vary-across-domains. My guess is that this yields sane results.
The main delta is probably a slower doubling time.
The most naive method would be to use the extrapolation based on the trend on OSWorld here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6KcP7tEe5hgvHbrSF/metr-how-does-time-horizon-vary-across-domains. My guess is that this yields sane results.
The main delta is probably a slower doubling time.