In 2015:
B: “Do you think there’s gonna be a Hantavirus pandemic?”A: “uh well it seems unlikely”B: “I disagree”A: “totally valid”
B: “Do you think there’s gonna be a Hantavirus pandemic?”
A: “uh well it seems unlikely”
B: “I disagree”
A: “totally valid”
I think all that “unlikely” means is “less than 50%”. I value knowing what different sources believe at more granularity than that.
Right, I am mocking what the conversation would have been had the prediction market not existed (edited).
In 2015:
I think all that “unlikely” means is “less than 50%”. I value knowing what different sources believe at more granularity than that.
Right, I am mocking what the conversation would have been had the prediction market not existed (edited).