I went into more detail about why I think this is more than 10 years away in a follow-up blog post:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F7Cdzn5mLrJvKkq3L/shallow-vs-deep-thinking-why-llms-fall-short
I went into more detail about why I think this is more than 10 years away in a follow-up blog post:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F7Cdzn5mLrJvKkq3L/shallow-vs-deep-thinking-why-llms-fall-short