I agree with where you believe the wargames were used.
I think trend extrapolation from previous progress is a very unreliable way to predict progress. I would put more stock into a compelling argument for why progress will be fast/slow, like the one I hope I have provided. But even this is pretty low-confidence compared to actual proof, which nobody has.
In this case, I don’t buy extrapolating from past LLM advances because my model is compatible with fast progress up to a point followed by a slowdown, and the competing model isn’t right just because it looks like a straight line when you plot it on a graph.
I agree with where you believe the wargames were used.
I think trend extrapolation from previous progress is a very unreliable way to predict progress. I would put more stock into a compelling argument for why progress will be fast/slow, like the one I hope I have provided. But even this is pretty low-confidence compared to actual proof, which nobody has.
In this case, I don’t buy extrapolating from past LLM advances because my model is compatible with fast progress up to a point followed by a slowdown, and the competing model isn’t right just because it looks like a straight line when you plot it on a graph.