I am not adding more detail to my prediction, I’m adding more detail to my justification of that prediction, which doesn’t make my prediction less probable. Unless you think predictions formed on the basis of little information are somehow more robust than predictions formed based on lots of information.
As for denying the super-exponential trend, I agree. I don’t put a lot of stock in extrapolating from past progress at all, because breakthroughs are discontinuous. That’s why I think it’s valuable to actually discuss the nature of the problem, rather than treating the problem as a black box we can predict by extrapolation.
I am not adding more detail to my prediction, I’m adding more detail to my justification of that prediction, which doesn’t make my prediction less probable. Unless you think predictions formed on the basis of little information are somehow more robust than predictions formed based on lots of information.
As for denying the super-exponential trend, I agree. I don’t put a lot of stock in extrapolating from past progress at all, because breakthroughs are discontinuous. That’s why I think it’s valuable to actually discuss the nature of the problem, rather than treating the problem as a black box we can predict by extrapolation.