My problems with the EA forum (or really EA-style reasoning as I’ve seen it) is the over-use of over-complicated modeling tools which are claimed to be based on hard data and statistics, but the amount and quality of that data is far too small & weak to “buy” such a complicated tool. So in some sense, perhaps, they move too far in the opposite direction.
Interestingly I think this mirrors the debates of “hard” vs “soft” obscurantism in the social sciences: hard obscurantism (as is common in old-school economics) relies on over-focus on mathematical modeling and complicated equations based on scant data and debatable theory, while soft obscurantism (as is common in most of the social sciences and humanities, outside of econ and maybe modern psychology) relies on complicated verbal debates, and dense jargon. I think my complaints about LW (outside of AI) mirror that of soft obscurantism, and your complaints of EA-forum style math modeling mirror that of hard obscurantism.
To be clear I don’t think our critiques are at odds with each other.
In economics, the main solution over the last few decades appears mostly to be to limit their scope and turn to greater empiricism (“better data beats better theory”), though that of course has its own downsides (streetlight bias, less investigation into the more important issues, replication crises). I think my suggestions to focus more on data is helpful in that regard.
Interestingly I think this mirrors the debates of “hard” vs “soft” obscurantism in the social sciences: hard obscurantism (as is common in old-school economics) relies on over-focus on mathematical modeling and complicated equations based on scant data and debatable theory, while soft obscurantism (as is common in most of the social sciences and humanities, outside of econ and maybe modern psychology) relies on complicated verbal debates, and dense jargon. I think my complaints about LW (outside of AI) mirror that of soft obscurantism, and your complaints of EA-forum style math modeling mirror that of hard obscurantism.
To be clear I don’t think our critiques are at odds with each other.
In economics, the main solution over the last few decades appears mostly to be to limit their scope and turn to greater empiricism (“better data beats better theory”), though that of course has its own downsides (streetlight bias, less investigation into the more important issues, replication crises). I think my suggestions to focus more on data is helpful in that regard.