I think there’s an asymmetry between your beliefs here. The AIs aren’t that persuasive today, but they might get much better in the future. Similarly, they aren’t very good at robotics today, but they might get much better at that in the future.
However, a) we’re further along the persuasion tree today than we are along the robotics tree, and b) robotics is much more gated by deployment than persuasion is. Even if we develop super-dextrous robots there’d still be a gap before large fractions of the economy are robots.
Hm. I’m tempted to come up with some reasons and defend my argument, but if I’m being honest, I think I just have a strong intuition that mass persuasion (specifically scheming/deception-based mass persuasion) is going to prove harder than robotics. People, culture, and societies just feel intensely chaotic and non-deterministic in a way that robotics isn’t. But I could be wrong!
I think there’s an asymmetry between your beliefs here. The AIs aren’t that persuasive today, but they might get much better in the future. Similarly, they aren’t very good at robotics today, but they might get much better at that in the future.
However, a) we’re further along the persuasion tree today than we are along the robotics tree, and b) robotics is much more gated by deployment than persuasion is. Even if we develop super-dextrous robots there’d still be a gap before large fractions of the economy are robots.
Hm. I’m tempted to come up with some reasons and defend my argument, but if I’m being honest, I think I just have a strong intuition that mass persuasion (specifically scheming/deception-based mass persuasion) is going to prove harder than robotics. People, culture, and societies just feel intensely chaotic and non-deterministic in a way that robotics isn’t. But I could be wrong!