I think that space colonization and exploration depend also on two other things.
The first one is risk assessment. If you assess that there is a small but viable risk that there are other alien expanding or otherwise competing species, then for your long-term goals, you need to have counter-measures. The worst-case scenario is that they have better technology and can sterilize a system quickly enough to remove you before you could send out stealthy probes when you see what’s going on. This means that a sensible strategy is to send probes early to other systems and leave some of them dormant or/and on a low-profile activity level (harder to spot). Also, you need to assess how quickly a competition can arise. If that is fast relative to the time needed to go from system to system, you should focus on finding planets with habitable zones and monitor them, maybe even send automatic probes there as early as you can. Basically, it is likely that you should expand your control as fast as possible, but this does not mean you need to explode in usage of the controlled resources asap.
The second one is the goal.
If your goal is parallelizable enough (like making as many paperclips as possible, or as many minds as possible), then you should expand the resource usage to the areas you control (with some backup plan, like taking further away low-key outposts). Other galaxies—I agree it depends on the estimate of how much of the speed and probability of success you can get with taking more time to research before sending probes. You don’t need to send out probes to other galaxies right away. Sterilizing a system by surprise by alien species in an unescapable way is something one can envision and plan around. Sterilizing the whole galaxy, including vast interstellar spaces, is basically impossible (except vacuum decay, but this would destroy everything).
If your goal is partially parallelizable, then you should expand control but use only local resources in a few places. Example: the research is partially parallelizable, but not totally, as new research is built on top of previous ones, some of it being very interconnected. When your goal is to have a relatively small number of minds that will live and experience things as long as possible (or some other long-term goal that does not envision grand usage of matter and energy), then you should focus on research and risk mitigation through control. Likely the best long-term method to produce energy is to live in relative nearby of a small black hole and use it for turning matter into energy. Much more effective than fission or fusion. So, a sensible strategy is to use a local system for some initial research + send some backup probes, and then when sensible black hole-using tech is ready, find a few black holes to harness and not care about stars, planets, etc., except as a source of danger which needs to be mitigated (observation, ability to intervene and partially evacuate and sending some stealthy backup probes) and long-term source of matter (that can wait for later usage). Parallelizing and using too much matter too quickly in this case is a waste, as you will surely duplicate the same lines of thought and research in many places, and you can’t synchronize well enough over vast distances. What if you need to test a million versions of the same experiment? Then, when the network is mature and it seems safe, you need to send information through your network of control nodes in different systems, and a million of them should expand locally and make the experiment, but not more than that.
If your goal is not parallelizable at all, then you should expand by sending automated probes, but stay local (first near the original star, then find a small black hole). Operate in a rather stealthy way, research and create means for observation and escape. Example: you are one mind or hive-mind that does not have a goal to multiply, expand, or whatever, but wants to experience things and stay alive as long as possible. Likely, you would still create intelligent probes that use resources to expand control, but in a very limited and stealthy fashion.
I agree with much of what you say, and will think about it further. However I don’t think this makes as much sense:
Also, you need to assess how quickly a competition can arise. If that is fast relative to the time needed to go from system to system, you should focus on finding planets with habitable zones and monitor them, maybe even send automatic probes there as early as you can.
My guess is that the automatic monitoring probes aren’t going to be meaningfully faster/more resource-intensive than the colonization probes. So might as well do the latter.
(I’m assuming colonization won’t be with biological humans or transhumans, for maybe obvious reasons)
I think that space colonization and exploration depend also on two other things.
The first one is risk assessment. If you assess that there is a small but viable risk that there are other alien expanding or otherwise competing species, then for your long-term goals, you need to have counter-measures. The worst-case scenario is that they have better technology and can sterilize a system quickly enough to remove you before you could send out stealthy probes when you see what’s going on. This means that a sensible strategy is to send probes early to other systems and leave some of them dormant or/and on a low-profile activity level (harder to spot). Also, you need to assess how quickly a competition can arise. If that is fast relative to the time needed to go from system to system, you should focus on finding planets with habitable zones and monitor them, maybe even send automatic probes there as early as you can.
Basically, it is likely that you should expand your control as fast as possible, but this does not mean you need to explode in usage of the controlled resources asap.
The second one is the goal.
If your goal is parallelizable enough (like making as many paperclips as possible, or as many minds as possible), then you should expand the resource usage to the areas you control (with some backup plan, like taking further away low-key outposts). Other galaxies—I agree it depends on the estimate of how much of the speed and probability of success you can get with taking more time to research before sending probes.
You don’t need to send out probes to other galaxies right away. Sterilizing a system by surprise by alien species in an unescapable way is something one can envision and plan around. Sterilizing the whole galaxy, including vast interstellar spaces, is basically impossible (except vacuum decay, but this would destroy everything).
If your goal is partially parallelizable, then you should expand control but use only local resources in a few places.
Example: the research is partially parallelizable, but not totally, as new research is built on top of previous ones, some of it being very interconnected. When your goal is to have a relatively small number of minds that will live and experience things as long as possible (or some other long-term goal that does not envision grand usage of matter and energy), then you should focus on research and risk mitigation through control.
Likely the best long-term method to produce energy is to live in relative nearby of a small black hole and use it for turning matter into energy. Much more effective than fission or fusion. So, a sensible strategy is to use a local system for some initial research + send some backup probes, and then when sensible black hole-using tech is ready, find a few black holes to harness and not care about stars, planets, etc., except as a source of danger which needs to be mitigated (observation, ability to intervene and partially evacuate and sending some stealthy backup probes) and long-term source of matter (that can wait for later usage).
Parallelizing and using too much matter too quickly in this case is a waste, as you will surely duplicate the same lines of thought and research in many places, and you can’t synchronize well enough over vast distances.
What if you need to test a million versions of the same experiment? Then, when the network is mature and it seems safe, you need to send information through your network of control nodes in different systems, and a million of them should expand locally and make the experiment, but not more than that.
If your goal is not parallelizable at all, then you should expand by sending automated probes, but stay local (first near the original star, then find a small black hole). Operate in a rather stealthy way, research and create means for observation and escape. Example: you are one mind or hive-mind that does not have a goal to multiply, expand, or whatever, but wants to experience things and stay alive as long as possible. Likely, you would still create intelligent probes that use resources to expand control, but in a very limited and stealthy fashion.
I agree with much of what you say, and will think about it further. However I don’t think this makes as much sense:
My guess is that the automatic monitoring probes aren’t going to be meaningfully faster/more resource-intensive than the colonization probes. So might as well do the latter.
(I’m assuming colonization won’t be with biological humans or transhumans, for maybe obvious reasons)