Yeah, for #11 after other things I was imagining that robotics will be kinda hard and also physically building enough of them out will take some time, meanwhile the inference time and experiments needed for #8 will be there and the marginal value of science very high, relative to other things you could be doing then.
I agree that superhuman R&D nontrivially before remote-only superintelligence is not an obvious prediction (maybe superhuman R&D is ASI complete, would be curious about your confidence level here).
I definitely agree these claims are in some sense nontrivial. I was trying to go for the modal prediction but like I’d be shocked if I actually get the full order right. Pretty much any of them are nonobvious except tautologies like 2 vs 3.
I wanted to write out literally any order so I have a better sense of things and the future doesn’t seem impossibly thorny, though of course the real way to represent this will look like some tree that has flows of probability mass or something.
Yeah, for #11 after other things I was imagining that robotics will be kinda hard and also physically building enough of them out will take some time, meanwhile the inference time and experiments needed for #8 will be there and the marginal value of science very high, relative to other things you could be doing then.
I agree that superhuman R&D nontrivially before remote-only superintelligence is not an obvious prediction (maybe superhuman R&D is ASI complete, would be curious about your confidence level here).
I definitely agree these claims are in some sense nontrivial. I was trying to go for the modal prediction but like I’d be shocked if I actually get the full order right. Pretty much any of them are nonobvious except tautologies like 2 vs 3.
I wanted to write out literally any order so I have a better sense of things and the future doesn’t seem impossibly thorny, though of course the real way to represent this will look like some tree that has flows of probability mass or something.