@Mo Putera has asked for concrete examples of
over-use of over-complicated modeling tools which are claimed to be based on hard data and statistics, but the amount and quality of that data is far too small & weak to “buy” such a complicated tool
I think AI 2027 is a good example of this sort of thing. Similarly, the notorious Rethink Priorities welfare range estimates on animal welfare, and though I haven’t thought deeply about it enough to be confident, GiveWell’s famous giant spreadsheets (see the links in the last section) are the sort of thing I am very nervous about. I’ll also point to Ajeya Cotra’s bioanchors report.
@Mo Putera has asked for concrete examples of
I think AI 2027 is a good example of this sort of thing. Similarly, the notorious Rethink Priorities welfare range estimates on animal welfare, and though I haven’t thought deeply about it enough to be confident, GiveWell’s famous giant spreadsheets (see the links in the last section) are the sort of thing I am very nervous about. I’ll also point to Ajeya Cotra’s bioanchors report.