Tbc I’m not sure this frame is the best for thinking about dangerous capabilities, evals, defenses, etc. A different frame is just listing whichever capabilities are highest-impact + early (being agnostic to sign) rather than focus on danger specifically. A third frame is just whatever capabilities are most economically relevant, maybe weighted by unusually scary applications (eg military).
Tbc I’m not sure this frame is the best for thinking about dangerous capabilities, evals, defenses, etc. A different frame is just listing whichever capabilities are highest-impact + early (being agnostic to sign) rather than focus on danger specifically. A third frame is just whatever capabilities are most economically relevant, maybe weighted by unusually scary applications (eg military).