A 14th technology plausibly invented by AIs is acausal trade, and in terms of where it shows up in the ordering, it likely appears between 9 and 12 in your ordering if it appears at all. The main use cases is to get an even larger amount of value/life than what would normally be possible according to the laws of physics, as well as to have anything like a centralized government/intelligence given the vast, vast amounts of latency from lightspeed being slow relative to the affectable universe’s size.
From a longtermist perspective, there’s an important sense in which only the details of acausal trade matter, at least relative to other issues, but as you say, this is very hard and less necessary to deal with directly for 2 reasons:
It comes very late in the tech tree, so for all intents and purposes, AI labor is going to be much, much more impactful than human labor for basically all questions, and a lot of the uncertainties of acausal trade are better left off to ASIs rather than doing any human work.
Acausal trade likely requires extremely good modelling abilities, and the surprisingly good ability of humans to model other humans does not cut it when you want to make trades acausally.
And the standard reason works here, in that it’s very hard to backchain from that across multiple world-shaping epochs!
My 15th proposed technology (though it’s more so a constellation of technologies) is ASIs good enough to stop needing empirical data for a huge range of sciences and technologies, relying near-purely on simulations, and an AlphaZero moment for all of applied science and tech and engineering arrives (where AlphaZero managed to get better purely through computation, and stopped needing human data to get better, leading to unfathomably good AIs in go)
Put another way, if you had such an ASI, you could ask it to invent an arbitrary design that is possible within the laws of physics, and the ASI invents, tests it in the simulations for a number of months, and then downloads the requested object from the simulation using nanotech/physically universal computers.
You could also use it to probe social science questions that used to be intractable pre-ASI.
This likely happens around 11 to 12, and most likely 11 given reversible computers and/or a very, very strong software-only singularity.
A 14th technology plausibly invented by AIs is acausal trade, and in terms of where it shows up in the ordering, it likely appears between 9 and 12 in your ordering if it appears at all. The main use cases is to get an even larger amount of value/life than what would normally be possible according to the laws of physics, as well as to have anything like a centralized government/intelligence given the vast, vast amounts of latency from lightspeed being slow relative to the affectable universe’s size.
From a longtermist perspective, there’s an important sense in which only the details of acausal trade matter, at least relative to other issues, but as you say, this is very hard and less necessary to deal with directly for 2 reasons:
It comes very late in the tech tree, so for all intents and purposes, AI labor is going to be much, much more impactful than human labor for basically all questions, and a lot of the uncertainties of acausal trade are better left off to ASIs rather than doing any human work.
Acausal trade likely requires extremely good modelling abilities, and the surprisingly good ability of humans to model other humans does not cut it when you want to make trades acausally.
And the standard reason works here, in that it’s very hard to backchain from that across multiple world-shaping epochs!
My 15th proposed technology (though it’s more so a constellation of technologies) is ASIs good enough to stop needing empirical data for a huge range of sciences and technologies, relying near-purely on simulations, and an AlphaZero moment for all of applied science and tech and engineering arrives (where AlphaZero managed to get better purely through computation, and stopped needing human data to get better, leading to unfathomably good AIs in go)
Put another way, if you had such an ASI, you could ask it to invent an arbitrary design that is possible within the laws of physics, and the ASI invents, tests it in the simulations for a number of months, and then downloads the requested object from the simulation using nanotech/physically universal computers.
You could also use it to probe social science questions that used to be intractable pre-ASI.
This likely happens around 11 to 12, and most likely 11 given reversible computers and/or a very, very strong software-only singularity.