Predicting an exponential or a sigmoid in perpetuity seems to be assuming there will not be another breakthrough. Breakthroughs don’t have to replace transformers, they can add to them. It seems like that would change the shape of the curve.
Continual learning in various forms is the breakthrough I’m particularly thinking of here, but there are other possibilities.
Predicting an exponential or a sigmoid in perpetuity seems to be assuming there will not be another breakthrough. Breakthroughs don’t have to replace transformers, they can add to them. It seems like that would change the shape of the curve.
Continual learning in various forms is the breakthrough I’m particularly thinking of here, but there are other possibilities.