I feel like adding human brain uploading / mind emulation to the list changes things. On the one hand, that’s kinda cheating since having digital humans is close to AGI in a lot of ways. On the other hand, if the ‘no AGI for now’ was because of lack of a robust alignment solution, and digital humans was a way around that, then it would fit the hypothetical.
I would also emphasize meta developments, like better forms of governance and contract forming (automated negotiations to reduce overhead?). In so far as one of the major things holding us back from tackling some of the engineering-feasible-but-socially-hard problems is coordination failures, then improving coordination ability would be a win on many fronts.
I feel like adding human brain uploading / mind emulation to the list changes things. On the one hand, that’s kinda cheating since having digital humans is close to AGI in a lot of ways. On the other hand, if the ‘no AGI for now’ was because of lack of a robust alignment solution, and digital humans was a way around that, then it would fit the hypothetical.
I would also emphasize meta developments, like better forms of governance and contract forming (automated negotiations to reduce overhead?). In so far as one of the major things holding us back from tackling some of the engineering-feasible-but-socially-hard problems is coordination failures, then improving coordination ability would be a win on many fronts.