I got confused thinking the different boxes are different universes (which made me apply a different reasoning) but I now realize that you mean that all people from both boxes are from your reference class in this scenario (which can explain the SSA reasoning). In this case..
SIA has no effect on the number of observers expected in the 2014, but increases the expected number of observers in 2013.
I don’t get what you mean here.
Thus we still expect that the number of observers in 2014 to be lower than we otherwise thought.
Nor here.
SIA doesn’t really make other people in your reference class who are somewhere else (in some box) less likely unless I am missing something.
That still doesn’t mean anything to me. Do you mean lower than the number of people we observe in 2013? It sounds like you mean lower that what we will project/estimate based on the number we see in 2013 but using what method?
I am sorry but this adds close to 0 clarity on what you mean but as I said SIA does not decrease the number of people who (might) exist in your reference class under normal conditions and the only difference between normal conditions here is that some of the people in your reference class are put in some box with some label. And putting the unknown quantity of people in your reference class who might be you in a box doesn’t change anything—they can be in a box, on another planet, in your basement or wherever. (Again I should add ’unless I am missing something)
Without SIA, we could assume, a priori, that there would be roughly equal amounts of people in 2013 and 2014. SIA increases the number of people in 2013. So we now expect there to be more people in 2013 than 2014, or a diminishing of population from 2013 to 2014: a doomsday effect. This is especially pronounced if we assume there is a fixed numbers of observers, so moving more to 2013 actively reduces those in 2014.
Causality removes this effect, since an increase in 2013 also causes an expected increase in 2014. But in cases without causality, it is present. If we are short term simulations in 2013, we should expect that there are less short-term simulations in 2014, hence that we are slightly less likely to have simulations that continue our lives into the next year.
I got confused thinking the different boxes are different universes (which made me apply a different reasoning) but I now realize that you mean that all people from both boxes are from your reference class in this scenario (which can explain the SSA reasoning). In this case..
I don’t get what you mean here.
Nor here.
SIA doesn’t really make other people in your reference class who are somewhere else (in some box) less likely unless I am missing something.
...based on the number of people we observe in 2013.
That still doesn’t mean anything to me. Do you mean lower than the number of people we observe in 2013? It sounds like you mean lower that what we will project/estimate based on the number we see in 2013 but using what method?
I am sorry but this adds close to 0 clarity on what you mean but as I said SIA does not decrease the number of people who (might) exist in your reference class under normal conditions and the only difference between normal conditions here is that some of the people in your reference class are put in some box with some label. And putting the unknown quantity of people in your reference class who might be you in a box doesn’t change anything—they can be in a box, on another planet, in your basement or wherever. (Again I should add ’unless I am missing something)
Without SIA, we could assume, a priori, that there would be roughly equal amounts of people in 2013 and 2014. SIA increases the number of people in 2013. So we now expect there to be more people in 2013 than 2014, or a diminishing of population from 2013 to 2014: a doomsday effect. This is especially pronounced if we assume there is a fixed numbers of observers, so moving more to 2013 actively reduces those in 2014.
Causality removes this effect, since an increase in 2013 also causes an expected increase in 2014. But in cases without causality, it is present. If we are short term simulations in 2013, we should expect that there are less short-term simulations in 2014, hence that we are slightly less likely to have simulations that continue our lives into the next year.