I was not trying to imply that the probability distribution on the sample space was known, simply that whatever it is, the probability of being in the first 10^-50 of it is 10^-50. The entire point of the doomsday argument (and much of Bayesian statistics, for that matter) is that if the probability distribution on the sample space is not known, you can use your data point to update your priors over them.
I was not trying to imply that the probability distribution on the sample space was known, simply that whatever it is, the probability of being in the first 10^-50 of it is 10^-50. The entire point of the doomsday argument (and much of Bayesian statistics, for that matter) is that if the probability distribution on the sample space is not known, you can use your data point to update your priors over them.