I’m glad to see this rigorous analysis of potential growth rates.
I realize you only had OECD data, but how do you think China’s growth rate would compare?
4 hours of battery storage is not nearly enough to create reliable electricity from PV.
Aluminum-wound motors and transformers are roughly 1.3x larger and heavier for the same output, acceptable for most industrial uses.
I agree on the larger volume, but as you note about power conductors, they are typically lighter weight.
A 10x economy is not possible under any assumptions about oil resources.
Unless you turn natural gas or coal into oil, which has already been commercially deployed, but it would need a lot of scale up. Also, some of the capital that consumed oil is no longer in service. And oil is used less for capital formation (smelting, electricity production) than other fossil fuels.
I couldn’t find reliable Chinese data, but I would expect somewhat faster because their economy is more labor intense. In Part 3 I compute the growth rate for historical US I/O data and find faster growth rates there too.
I discuss what electrical production could look like in more detail in Part 4, agree that 4 hrs of batteries are not enough and they can be expensive. The statement about 10x economy not being possible is simply a statement about today’s production methods, plenty of substitutes are available (including options like using hydrogen gas or fixing CO from the air) though they are currently more expensive than digging up oil.
Thanks—I’ll read those. And did you investigate gold and silver? In my quick analysis, I found that if we had to get as much gold and silver as we produce now from common rock, it would cost more than the entire economy. Of course we would conserve as the price increased, but gold is fairly important in electronics.
I’m glad to see this rigorous analysis of potential growth rates.
I realize you only had OECD data, but how do you think China’s growth rate would compare?
4 hours of battery storage is not nearly enough to create reliable electricity from PV.
I agree on the larger volume, but as you note about power conductors, they are typically lighter weight.
Unless you turn natural gas or coal into oil, which has already been commercially deployed, but it would need a lot of scale up. Also, some of the capital that consumed oil is no longer in service. And oil is used less for capital formation (smelting, electricity production) than other fossil fuels.
I couldn’t find reliable Chinese data, but I would expect somewhat faster because their economy is more labor intense. In Part 3 I compute the growth rate for historical US I/O data and find faster growth rates there too.
I discuss what electrical production could look like in more detail in Part 4, agree that 4 hrs of batteries are not enough and they can be expensive. The statement about 10x economy not being possible is simply a statement about today’s production methods, plenty of substitutes are available (including options like using hydrogen gas or fixing CO
Thanks—I’ll read those. And did you investigate gold and silver? In my quick analysis, I found that if we had to get as much gold and silver as we produce now from common rock, it would cost more than the entire economy. Of course we would conserve as the price increased, but gold is fairly important in electronics.