Stuart, you do have a “nice ordering measure”—simpler hypotheses (“all ascending”) have a higher prior probability than complex ones (“all ascending OR one over ten trillion” or randomness). Positive testing of contradictory, high-prior-probability hypotheses is still negative testing of your original hypothesis, no?
Stuart, you do have a “nice ordering measure”—simpler hypotheses (“all ascending”) have a higher prior probability than complex ones (“all ascending OR one over ten trillion” or randomness). Positive testing of contradictory, high-prior-probability hypotheses is still negative testing of your original hypothesis, no?