Unlike Charles, I am not about to use leverage. I consider leverage in personal investing to be reserved for extreme situations, and a substantial drop in prices is very possible. But I definitely understand.
Charles: There have been so many terrible arguments for why we’re in an AI bubble lately, and so few good ones, that I’ve been convinced the appropriate update is in the “not a bubble” direction and increased my already quite long position.
Fwiw that looks like now being 1.4x leveraged long a mix of about 50% index funds and 50% specific bets (GOOG, TSMC, AMZN the biggest of those).
Nowadays, I think updating on the fact that the arguments for the other side, like done in the quote, is the biggest mistake a lot of people do epistemically, and it causes them to radicalize into incorrect empirical beliefs, and this is because poor criticism of an idea will always exist independent of your idea’s quality.
I’ll make a linkpost on this tomorrow, and I’d argue that this is the single biggest reason why selection effects are so hard to deal with empirically, because you simply have to ignore the vast majority of possible critics/people who aren’t believers, but this also means you lose the ability to tell whether an effect is an artifact of selection without access to ground truth or a way to cheaply verify a theory independent of the social context.
Nowadays, I think updating on the fact that the arguments for the other side, like done in the quote, is the biggest mistake a lot of people do epistemically, and it causes them to radicalize into incorrect empirical beliefs, and this is because poor criticism of an idea will always exist independent of your idea’s quality.
I’ll make a linkpost on this tomorrow, and I’d argue that this is the single biggest reason why selection effects are so hard to deal with empirically, because you simply have to ignore the vast majority of possible critics/people who aren’t believers, but this also means you lose the ability to tell whether an effect is an artifact of selection without access to ground truth or a way to cheaply verify a theory independent of the social context.