Between outside view, Dunning-Krueger, and rhetorical questions about biases with no attempt to provide answers to them, you’ve built a schema for arguing against anything at all without the burden of bringing evidence to the table. I guess evidence would be the dreaded inside view, although that doesn’t stop you demanding it from the other side. Bostrom’s recent book? The arguments in the Sequences? No, that doesn’t count, it’s not exceptional enough, and besides, Dunning-Krueger means no-one ever knows they’re wrong, and (contd. p.94).
Maybe a better name for “outside view” would be “spectator’s view”, or “armchair view”.
Between outside view, Dunning-Krueger, and rhetorical questions about biases with no attempt to provide answers to them, you’ve built a schema for arguing against anything at all without the burden of bringing evidence to the table.
I don’t think so. Try to use this scheme to argue against, say, quantum mechanics.
Bostrom’s recent book? The arguments in the Sequences? No, that doesn’t count, it’s not exceptional enough
I haven’t read Bostrom’s recent book. Given that he’s a guy who takes the simulation hypothesis seriously, I’d don’t expect much valuable insight from him, but I could be wrong of course. If you think he has some substatially novel strong argument, feel free to point it out to me.
The Sequences discuss cryonics using weak arguments (e.g. the hard drive analogy). AFAIK they don’t focus on intelligence explosion. I think that Yudkowsky/Muehlhauser/MIRI argument for intelligence explosion is Good’s argument, variously expanded and articulated in the Yudkowsky/Hanson debate. Needless to say, I don’t find this line of argument very convincing. Again, feel free to refer me to any strong argument that I might be missing.
Between outside view, Dunning-Krueger, and rhetorical questions about biases with no attempt to provide answers to them, you’ve built a schema for arguing against anything at all without the burden of bringing evidence to the table. I guess evidence would be the dreaded inside view, although that doesn’t stop you demanding it from the other side. Bostrom’s recent book? The arguments in the Sequences? No, that doesn’t count, it’s not exceptional enough, and besides, Dunning-Krueger means no-one ever knows they’re wrong, and (contd. p.94).
Maybe a better name for “outside view” would be “spectator’s view”, or “armchair view”.
I don’t think so. Try to use this scheme to argue against, say, quantum mechanics.
I haven’t read Bostrom’s recent book. Given that he’s a guy who takes the simulation hypothesis seriously, I’d don’t expect much valuable insight from him, but I could be wrong of course. If you think he has some substatially novel strong argument, feel free to point it out to me.
The Sequences discuss cryonics using weak arguments (e.g. the hard drive analogy). AFAIK they don’t focus on intelligence explosion.
I think that Yudkowsky/Muehlhauser/MIRI argument for intelligence explosion is Good’s argument, variously expanded and articulated in the Yudkowsky/Hanson debate. Needless to say, I don’t find this line of argument very convincing.
Again, feel free to refer me to any strong argument that I might be missing.