Bah! Fine then, we won’t bet. IMO, you should have offered more generous terms. If your true probability is 2%, then that’s an odds against of 1:49, while his 65% would be 1:0.53, if I’m cranking the formula right. So a 1:2 doesn’t seem like a true split.
You are probably right about how it’s not a true split—I just did a stupid “add and divide by 2” on the percentages, but it doesn’t really work like that.. He would anticipate to lose once every 3 times, but given my percentages I anticipated to lose once every 50 times. (I’m not very mathy at all)
Bah! Fine then, we won’t bet. IMO, you should have offered more generous terms. If your true probability is 2%, then that’s an odds against of 1:49, while his 65% would be 1:0.53, if I’m cranking the formula right. So a 1:2 doesn’t seem like a true split.
You are probably right about how it’s not a true split—I just did a stupid “add and divide by 2” on the percentages, but it doesn’t really work like that.. He would anticipate to lose once every 3 times, but given my percentages I anticipated to lose once every 50 times. (I’m not very mathy at all)