Seems unlikely to me this would be in their interest.
Regarding chips, US just started selling them H200s, and if they invade Taiwan they probably destroy TSMC and immediately lose their main source of compute. The majority of the semiconductor industry outside Taiwan would still not be friendly to China.
They also lose 50% of their trade even if the US continues trading with them, which tanks their GDP by something like 10% [1]. If the US sanctions them too, it would be 60-70% trade reduction.
Militarily, they are also building up faster than the US, and if they invade Japan/SK will militarize and might get nuclear weapons.
If they really believed in RSI they would do diplomacy to get more compute and just invest in their AI industry.
[1] Claude thinks the likely outcome is this:
Lost trade: $2.4-2.8 trillion (US, EU, Japan, UK, Canada, Australia, possibly South Korea/Taiwan)
Continuing trade: $2.0-2.4 trillion (Russia, most ASEAN, Brazil, India, Middle East, Africa)
Net trade: $2.0-2.4T vs previous $6.2T = 60-70% reduction
Trade and invest in the U.S. is giving resources to the U.S. now in exchange for pieces of paper that might or might not be valuable in 10 years in a radical y different world.
Money can be exchanged for goods and services in under a 10-year timeframe, including AI hardware and talent. To come out ahead from trade they just need to invest more of their surplus in AI than the US does.
The #1 issue for the Chinese public is the economy, just like in the US. This includes people with influence on CCP decision-making.
Seems unlikely to me this would be in their interest.
Regarding chips, US just started selling them H200s, and if they invade Taiwan they probably destroy TSMC and immediately lose their main source of compute. The majority of the semiconductor industry outside Taiwan would still not be friendly to China.
They also lose 50% of their trade even if the US continues trading with them, which tanks their GDP by something like 10% [1]. If the US sanctions them too, it would be 60-70% trade reduction.
Militarily, they are also building up faster than the US, and if they invade Japan/SK will militarize and might get nuclear weapons.
If they really believed in RSI they would do diplomacy to get more compute and just invest in their AI industry.
[1] Claude thinks the likely outcome is this:
Lost trade: $2.4-2.8 trillion (US, EU, Japan, UK, Canada, Australia, possibly South Korea/Taiwan)
Continuing trade: $2.0-2.4 trillion (Russia, most ASEAN, Brazil, India, Middle East, Africa)
Net trade: $2.0-2.4T vs previous $6.2T = 60-70% reduction
Trade and invest in the U.S. is giving resources to the U.S. now in exchange for pieces of paper that might or might not be valuable in 10 years in a radical y different world.
Money can be exchanged for goods and services in under a 10-year timeframe, including AI hardware and talent. To come out ahead from trade they just need to invest more of their surplus in AI than the US does.
The #1 issue for the Chinese public is the economy, just like in the US. This includes people with influence on CCP decision-making.