In my opinion, it doesn’t make rational sense for them to invade at all. Even in the best-case scenario for China, where they manage to pacify Taiwan after a tough fight, I would still expect the following:
1) They would be permanently shut out of all Western trade and technology sharing. 2) All critical semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan will be destroyed by the US or the local Taiwanese military before China can get to it, and most of it is already in the process of being successfully transferred to the US. I also expect that most of the human talent would be taken to the US. 3) Even if the US did not directly intervene, the US and their allies would start massive rearmament and reindustrialisation programmes and maximally utilise their advantage in AI and other critical technologies in future. 4) Regarding point 4, if American AI victory is inevitable due to their computing advantage, China might still get a better deal in the current scenario, where it is perceived as merely an economic competitor and geopolitical challenger, rather than a direct adversary, as it would be in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.
There are also some indications that Taiwanese politics are slowly moving in a pro-China direction, with increased support for peaceful re-unification among younger KMT voters, which might also incentivise China to bide its time and avoid doing anything reckless.
They would be permanently shut out of all Western trade and technology sharing.
That’s not true. Many countries um the West were literally fascists during WWII. I can totally imagine worlds where China and the West get along after that.
All critical semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan will be destroyed by the US or the local Taiwanese military before China can get to it, and most of it is already in the process of being successfully transferred to the US. I also expect that most of the human talent would be taken to the US.
Why should China care, if they are mostly cut from the output of that anyway?
3) Even if the US did not directly intervene, the US and their allies would start massive rearmament and reindustrialisation programmes and maximally utilise their advantage in AI and other critical technologies in future.
Trump just asked for a $1.5T military budget. It’s already happening.
4) Regarding point 4, if American AI victory is inevitable due to their computing advantage, China might still get a better deal in the current scenario, where it is perceived as merely an economic competitor and geopolitical challenger, rather than a direct adversary, as it would be in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.
American AI victory is not inevitable. And not taking this bet would relinquish China to the permanent undetclass of nations, which i’m sure Beijing doesn’t want.
In my opinion, it doesn’t make rational sense for them to invade at all. Even in the best-case scenario for China, where they manage to pacify Taiwan after a tough fight, I would still expect the following:
1) They would be permanently shut out of all Western trade and technology sharing.
2) All critical semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan will be destroyed by the US or the local Taiwanese military before China can get to it, and most of it is already in the process of being successfully transferred to the US. I also expect that most of the human talent would be taken to the US.
3) Even if the US did not directly intervene, the US and their allies would start massive rearmament and reindustrialisation programmes and maximally utilise their advantage in AI and other critical technologies in future.
4) Regarding point 4, if American AI victory is inevitable due to their computing advantage, China might still get a better deal in the current scenario, where it is perceived as merely an economic competitor and geopolitical challenger, rather than a direct adversary, as it would be in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.
There are also some indications that Taiwanese politics are slowly moving in a pro-China direction, with increased support for peaceful re-unification among younger KMT voters, which might also incentivise China to bide its time and avoid doing anything reckless.
Thank you for replying.
That’s not true. Many countries um the West were literally fascists during WWII. I can totally imagine worlds where China and the West get along after that.
Why should China care, if they are mostly cut from the output of that anyway?
Trump just asked for a $1.5T military budget. It’s already happening.
American AI victory is not inevitable. And not taking this bet would relinquish China to the permanent undetclass of nations, which i’m sure Beijing doesn’t want.