To answer your question, despite David Gerard’s advice:
I would not lie to donors about the likely impact of their donations, the evidence concerning SIAI’s ability or inability to pull off projects, how we compare to other organizations aimed at existential risk reduction, etc. (I don’t have all the answers, but I aim for accuracy and revise my beliefs and my statements as evidence comes in; I’ve actively tried to gather info on whether we or FHI reduce risk more per dollar, and I often recommend to donors that they do their own legwork with that charity comparison to improve knowledge and incentives). If a maniacal donor with a gun came searching for a Jew I had hidden in my house, or if I somehow had a “how to destroy the world” recipe and someone asked me how to use it, I suppose lying would be more tempting.
While I cannot speak for others, I suspect that Michael Vassar, Eliezer, Jasen, and others feel similarly, especially about the “not lying to one’s cooperative partners” point.
I suppose I should add “unless the actual answer is not a trolley problem” to my advice on not answering this sort of hypothetical ;-)
(my usual answer to hypotheticals is “we have no plans along those lines”, because usually we really don’t. We’re also really good at not having opinions on other organisations, e.g. Wikileaks, which we’re getting asked about A LOT because their name starts with “wiki”. A blog post on the subject is imminent. Edit:up now.)
It’s very easy to not lie when talking about the future. It is much easier to “just this once” lie about the past. You can do both, for instance, by explaining that you believe a project will succeed, even while withholding information that would convince a donor otherwise.
An example of this would be errors or misconduct in completing past projects.
Lack of relevant qualifications for people SIAI plans to employ on a project.
Or administrative errors and misconduct.
Or public relations / donor outreach misconduct.
To put the question another, less abstract way, have you ever lied to a SIAI donor? Do you know of anyone affiliated with SIAI who has lied a donor?
Hypothetically, If I said I had evidence in the affirmative to the second question, how surprising would that be to you? How much money would you bet that such evidence doesn’t exist?
You’re trying very hard to get everyone to think that SIAI has lied to donors or done something equally dishonest. I agree that this is an appropriate question to discuss, but you are pursuing the matter so aggressively that I just have to ask: do you know something we don’t? Do you think that you/other donors have been lied to on a particular occasion, and if so, when?
An example of this would be errors or misconduct in completing past projects.
When I asked Anna about the coordination between SIAI and FHI, something like “Do you talk enough with each other that you wouldn’t both spend resources writing the same research paper?”, she was told me about the one time that they had in fact both presented a paper on the same topic at a conference, and that they do now coordinate more to prevent that sort of thing.
I have found that Anna and others at SIAI are honest and forthcoming.
To answer your question, despite David Gerard’s advice:
I would not lie to donors about the likely impact of their donations, the evidence concerning SIAI’s ability or inability to pull off projects, how we compare to other organizations aimed at existential risk reduction, etc. (I don’t have all the answers, but I aim for accuracy and revise my beliefs and my statements as evidence comes in; I’ve actively tried to gather info on whether we or FHI reduce risk more per dollar, and I often recommend to donors that they do their own legwork with that charity comparison to improve knowledge and incentives). If a maniacal donor with a gun came searching for a Jew I had hidden in my house, or if I somehow had a “how to destroy the world” recipe and someone asked me how to use it, I suppose lying would be more tempting.
While I cannot speak for others, I suspect that Michael Vassar, Eliezer, Jasen, and others feel similarly, especially about the “not lying to one’s cooperative partners” point.
I suppose I should add “unless the actual answer is not a trolley problem” to my advice on not answering this sort of hypothetical ;-)
(my usual answer to hypotheticals is “we have no plans along those lines”, because usually we really don’t. We’re also really good at not having opinions on other organisations, e.g. Wikileaks, which we’re getting asked about A LOT because their name starts with “wiki”. A blog post on the subject is imminent. Edit: up now.)
I notice that your list is future facing.
Lies are usually about the past.
It’s very easy to not lie when talking about the future. It is much easier to “just this once” lie about the past. You can do both, for instance, by explaining that you believe a project will succeed, even while withholding information that would convince a donor otherwise.
An example of this would be errors or misconduct in completing past projects.
Lack of relevant qualifications for people SIAI plans to employ on a project.
Or administrative errors and misconduct.
Or public relations / donor outreach misconduct.
To put the question another, less abstract way, have you ever lied to a SIAI donor? Do you know of anyone affiliated with SIAI who has lied a donor?
Hypothetically, If I said I had evidence in the affirmative to the second question, how surprising would that be to you? How much money would you bet that such evidence doesn’t exist?
You’re trying very hard to get everyone to think that SIAI has lied to donors or done something equally dishonest. I agree that this is an appropriate question to discuss, but you are pursuing the matter so aggressively that I just have to ask: do you know something we don’t? Do you think that you/other donors have been lied to on a particular occasion, and if so, when?
When I asked Anna about the coordination between SIAI and FHI, something like “Do you talk enough with each other that you wouldn’t both spend resources writing the same research paper?”, she was told me about the one time that they had in fact both presented a paper on the same topic at a conference, and that they do now coordinate more to prevent that sort of thing.
I have found that Anna and others at SIAI are honest and forthcoming.
Your comment here killed the hostage.