But that it was in fact net negative doesn’t directly argue that given the information at hand when the decision was made, it had net negative expectation, and so that the decision was incorrect.
More than enough information about human behavior was available at the time. Negative consequences of the kind observed were not remotely hard to predict.
Yes, quite likely. I didn’t argue with this point, though I myself don’t understand human behavior enough for that expectation to be obvious. I only argued that the actual outcome isn’t a strong reason to conclude that it was expected.
More than enough information about human behavior was available at the time. Negative consequences of the kind observed were not remotely hard to predict.
Yes, quite likely. I didn’t argue with this point, though I myself don’t understand human behavior enough for that expectation to be obvious. I only argued that the actual outcome isn’t a strong reason to conclude that it was expected.