Perhaps we have some kind of underlying disagreement about what it means for temporal discounting to be “instrumental”.
In your example of an agent with suffering from risk of death, my thinking is: this player might opt for a safer life—with reduced risk. Or they might choose to lead a more interesting but more risky life. Their degree of discounting may well adjust itself accordingly—and if so, I would take that as evidence that their discounting was not really part of their pure preferences, but rather was an instrumental and dynamic response to the observed risk of dying.
If—on the other hand—they adjusted the risk level of their lifestyle, and their level of temporal discounting remained unchanged, that would be cofirming evidence in favour of the hypothesis that their temporal discounting was an innate part of their ultimate preferences—and not instrumental.
Of course. My point is that observing if the discount rate changes with the risk tells you if the agent is rational or irrational, not if the discount rate is all instrumental or partially terminal.
Stepping back for a moment, terminal values represent what the agent really wants, and instrumental values are things sought en-route.
The idea I was trying to express was: if what an agent really wants is not temporally discounted, then instrumental temporal discounting will produce a predictable temporal discounting curve—caused by aging, mortality risk, uncertainty, etc.
Deviations from that curve would indicate the presence of terminal temporal discounting.
I have no disagreement at all with your analysis here. This is not fundamental discounting. And if you have decision alternatives which affect the chances of dying, then it doesn’t even work to model it as if it were fundamental.
Perhaps we have some kind of underlying disagreement about what it means for temporal discounting to be “instrumental”.
In your example of an agent with suffering from risk of death, my thinking is: this player might opt for a safer life—with reduced risk. Or they might choose to lead a more interesting but more risky life. Their degree of discounting may well adjust itself accordingly—and if so, I would take that as evidence that their discounting was not really part of their pure preferences, but rather was an instrumental and dynamic response to the observed risk of dying.
If—on the other hand—they adjusted the risk level of their lifestyle, and their level of temporal discounting remained unchanged, that would be cofirming evidence in favour of the hypothesis that their temporal discounting was an innate part of their ultimate preferences—and not instrumental.
This bothers me since, with reasonable assumptions, all rational agents engage in the same amount of catastrophe discounting.
That is, observed discount rate = instrumental discount rate + chance of death + other factors
We should expect everyone’s discount rate to change, by the same amount, unless they’re irrational.
Agents do not all face the same risks, though.
Sure, they may discount the same amount if they do face the same risks, but often they don’t—e.g. compare the motorcycle racer with the nun.
So: the discounting rate is not fixed at so-much per year, but rather is a function of the agent’s observed state and capabilities.
Of course. My point is that observing if the discount rate changes with the risk tells you if the agent is rational or irrational, not if the discount rate is all instrumental or partially terminal.
Stepping back for a moment, terminal values represent what the agent really wants, and instrumental values are things sought en-route.
The idea I was trying to express was: if what an agent really wants is not temporally discounted, then instrumental temporal discounting will produce a predictable temporal discounting curve—caused by aging, mortality risk, uncertainty, etc.
Deviations from that curve would indicate the presence of terminal temporal discounting.
Agreed.
I have no disagreement at all with your analysis here. This is not fundamental discounting. And if you have decision alternatives which affect the chances of dying, then it doesn’t even work to model it as if it were fundamental.