By default, and in practice for the great majority, no factual question can be regarded as popular or important unless it provides an opportunity for status signaling or mind killing.
However, if there is something like a prediction market, a tiny minority will adapt to become specialists in making accurate and profitable predictions.
This applies to sports and stock trades. Most people will be happy to be a [LOCAL SPORTS TEAM] fan, and will happily remained biased for signaling purposes, maybe making penny-ante bets to show loyalty. Professional bookmakers in Vegas and professional coaches of sports teams have to look at reality, or else find another job. Similarly, people in finance may have strong political opinions on their own time, but if they don’t make money, they’ll be out of a job.
This doesn’t necessarily help if you’re trying to “explain to people how beliefs should be expressed in probabilities” to the vast majority of people who don’t have skin in the game. But you could appeal to their imagination.
I tentatively suggest there’s a pattern here.
By default, and in practice for the great majority, no factual question can be regarded as popular or important unless it provides an opportunity for status signaling or mind killing.
However, if there is something like a prediction market, a tiny minority will adapt to become specialists in making accurate and profitable predictions.
This applies to sports and stock trades. Most people will be happy to be a [LOCAL SPORTS TEAM] fan, and will happily remained biased for signaling purposes, maybe making penny-ante bets to show loyalty. Professional bookmakers in Vegas and professional coaches of sports teams have to look at reality, or else find another job. Similarly, people in finance may have strong political opinions on their own time, but if they don’t make money, they’ll be out of a job.
This doesn’t necessarily help if you’re trying to “explain to people how beliefs should be expressed in probabilities” to the vast majority of people who don’t have skin in the game. But you could appeal to their imagination.