So what are the important questions that average (or somewhat-above-average) people will likely agree are complicated open questions where both sides have good points?
I don’t really see sides here. It’s more “the forecast says x%”. So while reasonable people will admit to probability estimates other than 0 or 100%, that’s because of the format the information is presented in.
But the point is not to discuss them, it’s to show people that they should not assert 100% probabilities.
I don’t really see sides here. It’s more “the forecast says x%”. So while reasonable people will admit to probability estimates other than 0 or 100%, that’s because of the format the information is presented in.