These would all make decent examples, but I’m surprised by how many posts here have concentrated solely on future events (which are obviously uncertain). I’m curious whether there are any questions about the past or present that fit these criteria.
In order for probabilities to be logical as an approach, you need ignorance. Ignorance is in much more ample supply in the future than it is in the past.
Questions from DAGGRE with a current estimate between 10 and 90%:
Will Ayman al-Zawahiri still be recognized as the leader of al-Qaeda as of 31 december 2012?
Will there be an official announcement of a new sovereign debt restructuring program for Greece before June 1, 2012?
Will the forces of Alassane Outtara defeat the forces of Laurent Gbagbo in the Ivory Coast before 1 December 2012?
Will Croatia’s GDP grow more than 0 percent in calendar 2012?
Will €1 Euro buy less than $1.20 Australian dollars at any point before 1 January 2013?
Will there will be a 50%-effective malaria vaccine available for general use before 2015?
These would all make decent examples, but I’m surprised by how many posts here have concentrated solely on future events (which are obviously uncertain). I’m curious whether there are any questions about the past or present that fit these criteria.
In order for probabilities to be logical as an approach, you need ignorance. Ignorance is in much more ample supply in the future than it is in the past.