One interesting fact from Chapter 4 (on weather predictions) that seems worth mentioning: Weather forecasters are also very good at manually and intuitively (i.e. without some rigorous mathematical method) fixing the predictions of their models. E.g. they might know that model A always predicts rain a hundred miles or so too far west from the Rocky Mountains. So to fix this, they take the computer output and manually redraw the lines (demarking level sets of precipitation) about a hundred miles east, and this significantly improves their forecasts.
Also: the national weather service gives the most accurate weather predictions. Everyone else will exaggerate to a greater or lesser degree in order to avoid getting flak from consumers about, e.g., rain on their wedding day (because not-rain or their not-wedding day is far less of a problem).
One interesting fact from Chapter 4 (on weather predictions) that seems worth mentioning: Weather forecasters are also very good at manually and intuitively (i.e. without some rigorous mathematical method) fixing the predictions of their models. E.g. they might know that model A always predicts rain a hundred miles or so too far west from the Rocky Mountains. So to fix this, they take the computer output and manually redraw the lines (demarking level sets of precipitation) about a hundred miles east, and this significantly improves their forecasts.
Also: the national weather service gives the most accurate weather predictions. Everyone else will exaggerate to a greater or lesser degree in order to avoid getting flak from consumers about, e.g., rain on their wedding day (because not-rain or their not-wedding day is far less of a problem).