Caplan’s book has all kinds of flaws, one of which is that he talks about how “it’s almost all signalling” throughout the book. But when he actually does the math, he conflates it with ability bias, which grossly inflates his signalling estimates (from 8-35% to 33%-80%).
I also think Caplan is wrong on the conformity point and he offers virtually no evidence for it—at least in his book. As far as I recall, he only points to employers not taking online credentials seriously, but that can be equally explained by employers valuing conscientiousness (online credentials are easier to get) and still don’t really understand online credentials that well.
Caplan’s book has all kinds of flaws, one of which is that he talks about how “it’s almost all signalling” throughout the book. But when he actually does the math, he conflates it with ability bias, which grossly inflates his signalling estimates (from 8-35% to 33%-80%).
I also think Caplan is wrong on the conformity point and he offers virtually no evidence for it—at least in his book. As far as I recall, he only points to employers not taking online credentials seriously, but that can be equally explained by employers valuing conscientiousness (online credentials are easier to get) and still don’t really understand online credentials that well.