“My rough intuition is that technological progress happens exponentially”
“Having spent a year looking into the history of technological progress, I concluded it happens exponentially: [here are specific data sources, or links, or some sort of pointer]”
Given that I don’t start thinking that anyone can report directly the state of the world (rather than their beliefs and understanding of it), “From what I understand, technological progress happens exponentially” does not provide much information (particularly because there is large interpersonal variation in the strength of hedging a given qualifier is supposed to convey).
Sometimes I feel forced to add qualifiers because it makes it more likely that someone will keep engaging with me. That is, I am confused about something, and they are helping refine my model. By adding qualifiers, I signal that I’m reasonable / understand I should be uncertain of my conclusions / am open to updating.
Given that I don’t start thinking that anyone can report directly the state of the world (rather than their beliefs and understanding of it), “From what I understand, technological progress happens exponentially” does not provide much information
When interpreted literally, I agree. But “from what I understand” connotes a sense that you’re not super confident eg. because you’re talking about something that you’re not an expert on.
I like qualifiers that give information on the person’s epistemic state or, even better, process. For example:
“Technological progress happens exponentially (70%)”
“My rough intuition is that technological progress happens exponentially”
“Having spent a year looking into the history of technological progress, I concluded it happens exponentially: [here are specific data sources, or links, or some sort of pointer]”
Given that I don’t start thinking that anyone can report directly the state of the world (rather than their beliefs and understanding of it), “From what I understand, technological progress happens exponentially” does not provide much information (particularly because there is large interpersonal variation in the strength of hedging a given qualifier is supposed to convey).
Sometimes I feel forced to add qualifiers because it makes it more likely that someone will keep engaging with me. That is, I am confused about something, and they are helping refine my model. By adding qualifiers, I signal that I’m reasonable / understand I should be uncertain of my conclusions / am open to updating.
When interpreted literally, I agree. But “from what I understand” connotes a sense that you’re not super confident eg. because you’re talking about something that you’re not an expert on.
Yeah, that’s what my parenthetical was supposed to address
Perhaps you are able to get more reliable information out of such statements than I am.