a) Yes, it is, but that’s the point of it. And the viewpoint seems self-justified to me.
b) The article makes no claim that “progress” is continuous or smooth or monotonically increasing, or that it doesn’t suffer setbacks. The point is that *in spite* of setbacks, civilization has experienced net progress and there appears to be reason to expect that to continue—in the long run.
c) Yes, but there’s a feedback loop at work. The more that problems create pain for people, the more people focus resources and attention on finding solutions for those problems.
d) Again, yes, we depend on cheap energy. There seem to be lots of other ways to obtain that other than burning fossil fuels—nuclear power is the most obvious solution, tho there are others. And, again, there’s a feedback loop at work—as energy prices increase, that will create incentives to find cheaper sources.
e) “Rapid enough” is a function of attention, capital, and effort invested into solving problems. As we work harder to solve problems, our rate of progress at solving those problems increases.
Of course there are existential risks—most of them involve very short-term catastrophes that may happen too rapidly for people to adapt and respond to. It’s urgent that we think about preventing them. The fact that we’re here talking about it is a good sign.
But people—and civilization in general—aren’t passive victims of vast historical forces. They act and influence outcomes.
In the words of Karl Popper, “Optimism is a duty. The future is open. It is not predetermined. No one can predict it, except by chance. We all contribute to determining it by what we do. We are all equally responsible for its success. ”
@waveman:
a) Yes, it is, but that’s the point of it. And the viewpoint seems self-justified to me.
b) The article makes no claim that “progress” is continuous or smooth or monotonically increasing, or that it doesn’t suffer setbacks. The point is that *in spite* of setbacks, civilization has experienced net progress and there appears to be reason to expect that to continue—in the long run.
c) Yes, but there’s a feedback loop at work. The more that problems create pain for people, the more people focus resources and attention on finding solutions for those problems.
d) Again, yes, we depend on cheap energy. There seem to be lots of other ways to obtain that other than burning fossil fuels—nuclear power is the most obvious solution, tho there are others. And, again, there’s a feedback loop at work—as energy prices increase, that will create incentives to find cheaper sources.
e) “Rapid enough” is a function of attention, capital, and effort invested into solving problems. As we work harder to solve problems, our rate of progress at solving those problems increases.
Of course there are existential risks—most of them involve very short-term catastrophes that may happen too rapidly for people to adapt and respond to. It’s urgent that we think about preventing them. The fact that we’re here talking about it is a good sign.
But people—and civilization in general—aren’t passive victims of vast historical forces. They act and influence outcomes.
In the words of Karl Popper, “Optimism is a duty. The future is open. It is not predetermined. No one can predict it, except by chance. We all contribute to determining it by what we do. We are all equally responsible for its success. ”