Most interesting claims are narrow; the narrower a claim, the more likely it is to be wrong.
If you have an expert who seems systematically wrong, “opposite” predictions will be broad claims that are often right. But that’s not very useful—it’s easy to make a series of broad claims, most of which are right.
Most interesting claims are narrow; the narrower a claim, the more likely it is to be wrong.
If you have an expert who seems systematically wrong, “opposite” predictions will be broad claims that are often right. But that’s not very useful—it’s easy to make a series of broad claims, most of which are right.