18 months is more than enough to get a DSA if AGI turns out anything we fear (that is, something really powerful and difficult to control, probably arriving fast at such state through an intelligence explosion).
In fact, I’d even argue 18 days might be enough. AI is already beginning to solve protein folding (Alphafold). If it progresses from there and builds a nanosystem, that’s more than enough to get a DSA aka take over the world. We currently see AIs like MuZero learning in hours what would take a lifetime for a human to learn, so it wouldn’t surprise me an advanced AI solving advanced nanotech in a few days.
Whether the first AGI will be aligned or not is way more concerning. Not because who gets there first isn’t also extremely important. Only because getting there first is the “easy” part.
I don’t really think advanced AI can be compared to atomic bombs. The former is a way more explosive technology, pun intended.
18 months is more than enough to get a DSA if AGI turns out anything we fear (that is, something really powerful and difficult to control, probably arriving fast at such state through an intelligence explosion).
In fact, I’d even argue 18 days might be enough. AI is already beginning to solve protein folding (Alphafold). If it progresses from there and builds a nanosystem, that’s more than enough to get a DSA aka take over the world. We currently see AIs like MuZero learning in hours what would take a lifetime for a human to learn, so it wouldn’t surprise me an advanced AI solving advanced nanotech in a few days.
Whether the first AGI will be aligned or not is way more concerning. Not because who gets there first isn’t also extremely important. Only because getting there first is the “easy” part.
I don’t really think advanced AI can be compared to atomic bombs. The former is a way more explosive technology, pun intended.