Hmm, I don’t know. With the caveat that I’m not a legal expert, I do think there’s a big difference between basically any job that can be done remotely most of the time and skilled physical labor jobs. I use LLMs for coding every day, and they still have tons of problems, but I do see significant progress happening. There is legitimate uncertainty over how long it will take for AIs to become reliable at tasks like coding.
Coding and ML research also requires a lot of subjective taste, like writing easily understandable code with good abstractions or selecting approaches to a research problem. We also see companies like Harvey (legal AI) making over $50M in ARR, while I’m not aware of basically any useful manufacturing AI tools.
AI is very useful in legal matters and is clearly a promising sector for business. It is possible that some legal jobs (especially documentation and basic, non-personalized legal information jobs) are already being challenged by AI and are on the verge of being eliminated, with others to follow sooner or later. My comment was simply reacting to the idea that many white-collar jobs will be on the front line of this destruction. The job of a lawyer is often cited, and I think it’s a rather poor example for the reasons I mentioned. Many white-collar jobs combine technical and social skills that can be quite challenging for AI.
Hmm, I don’t know. With the caveat that I’m not a legal expert, I do think there’s a big difference between basically any job that can be done remotely most of the time and skilled physical labor jobs. I use LLMs for coding every day, and they still have tons of problems, but I do see significant progress happening. There is legitimate uncertainty over how long it will take for AIs to become reliable at tasks like coding.
Coding and ML research also requires a lot of subjective taste, like writing easily understandable code with good abstractions or selecting approaches to a research problem. We also see companies like Harvey (legal AI) making over $50M in ARR, while I’m not aware of basically any useful manufacturing AI tools.
AI is very useful in legal matters and is clearly a promising sector for business. It is possible that some legal jobs (especially documentation and basic, non-personalized legal information jobs) are already being challenged by AI and are on the verge of being eliminated, with others to follow sooner or later. My comment was simply reacting to the idea that many white-collar jobs will be on the front line of this destruction. The job of a lawyer is often cited, and I think it’s a rather poor example for the reasons I mentioned. Many white-collar jobs combine technical and social skills that can be quite challenging for AI.