They’re pretty bad, but they seem about GPT-2 level bad? So plausibly in a couple of years they will be GPT-4 level good, if things go the same way?
This does seem pretty difficult. The only idea I have is having humans wear special gloves with sensors on them, and maybe explain their thoughts aloud as they work, and then collecting all of this data.
Before you go to RL you need to train on prediction with a large amount of data first. We don’t have this yet for blue collar work. Then once you have the prediction model, robots, and rudimentary agents, you try to get the robots to do simple tasks in isolated environments. If they succeed they get rewarded. This feels quite a bit more than 3 years away...
In general, I think the ideas is that you first get a superhuman coder, then you get a superhuman AI researcher, then you get a any-task superhuman researcher, and then you use this superhuman researcher to solve all of the problems we have been discussing in lightning fast time.
Yeah, I agree. I currently feel like our current ML approach is going to make very little real world manufacturing progress, and that any progress will have to come from the automated AI researcher either brute forcing tons of synthetic data or coming up with new architectures and training procedures.
But, this is a low confidence take, and I wouldn’t be shocked if a couple dumb tricks make a lot of progress.
They’re pretty bad, but they seem about GPT-2 level bad? So plausibly in a couple of years they will be GPT-4 level good, if things go the same way?
This does seem pretty difficult. The only idea I have is having humans wear special gloves with sensors on them, and maybe explain their thoughts aloud as they work, and then collecting all of this data.
Before you go to RL you need to train on prediction with a large amount of data first. We don’t have this yet for blue collar work. Then once you have the prediction model, robots, and rudimentary agents, you try to get the robots to do simple tasks in isolated environments. If they succeed they get rewarded. This feels quite a bit more than 3 years away...
In general, I think the ideas is that you first get a superhuman coder, then you get a superhuman AI researcher, then you get a any-task superhuman researcher, and then you use this superhuman researcher to solve all of the problems we have been discussing in lightning fast time.
Yeah, I agree. I currently feel like our current ML approach is going to make very little real world manufacturing progress, and that any progress will have to come from the automated AI researcher either brute forcing tons of synthetic data or coming up with new architectures and training procedures.
But, this is a low confidence take, and I wouldn’t be shocked if a couple dumb tricks make a lot of progress.