So I can use “unjustifiable” methods to get even closer to the truth? Screw “rationality”, then!
Yes, you can. But with a lower probability. At the limiting case you can add or subtract an epsilon from the ‘rational’ probability assignment and you will be closer to the truth (0.5 - _different_epsilon_) of the time.
This applies to instrumental rationality too. A lucky guess will win you the lottery. An expected utility calculation will not (except when extremely desperate and similarly lucky).
Did you see me mentioning methods anywhere? If a method can get you closer to truth, then that is its justification. But in the example given the method was “it would make him happy if they won”. This is not a reliable method for reaching truth and on average will get you farther from it.
So I can use “unjustifiable” methods to get even closer to the truth? Screw “rationality”, then!
Not consistently, which is the point.
Yes, you can. But with a lower probability. At the limiting case you can add or subtract an epsilon from the ‘rational’ probability assignment and you will be closer to the truth (0.5 - _different_epsilon_) of the time.
This applies to instrumental rationality too. A lucky guess will win you the lottery. An expected utility calculation will not (except when extremely desperate and similarly lucky).
Did you see me mentioning methods anywhere? If a method can get you closer to truth, then that is its justification. But in the example given the method was “it would make him happy if they won”. This is not a reliable method for reaching truth and on average will get you farther from it.