Does the unpredictability of quantum events produce a butterfly effect on the macro level? i.e., since we can’t predict the result of a quantum process, and our brains are composed of eleventy zillion quantum processes, does that make our brains’ output inherently unpredictable as well? Or do the quantum effects somehow cancel out? It seems to me that they must cancel out in at least some circumstances or we wouldn’t have things like predictable ball collisions, spring behavior, etc.
If there is a butterfly effect, wouldn’t that have something to say about Omega problems (where the predictability of the brain is a given) and some of the nastier kinds of AI basilisks?
Some systems exhibit a butterfly effect (a.k.a. chaos); some don’t. The butterfly effect is where (arbitrarily) small changes to the conditions of the system can totally change it’s future course. The weather is a good example of this. The change caused by a butterfly flapping it’s wing differently will amplify itself until the entire Earth’s weather is different from what it would have been. But other systems aren’t like that. They’re more “stable”. For example if you change the position of any individual atom in my computer it won’t make any difference to the computations I’m running. Other things are predictable just because we don’t give time for any changes to develop. For example ball collisions are predictable, but if we study many ball collisions in a row, like a billiards “trick shot”, then hitting the initial ball slightly differently will make a huge difference.
You ask about quantum events. For chaotic systems, deviations caused by quantum events will indeed cause a butterfly effect.
So whether or not the brain is predictable depends on to what extent it’s chaotic, and to what extent it’s stable. I suspect that it’s chaotic, in the sense that a small tweak to it could totally change the way a thought process goes. But over time my brain will be predictable “on average”. I’ll behave in ways matching my personality. Similarly a butterfly flapping it’s wings might change when it rains, but it’ll still rain more in Bergen than the Sahara.
I don’t think this says much about Omega problems. Quantum butterfly effects will (I suspect) stop Omega exactly simulating my thought process, but I reckon it could still predict my choice with very high confidence just by considering my most likely lines of thought.
The butterfly effect kicks in wherever there’s something unstable—whenever there’s a system where little changes grow. Billiards balls do this, for instance, which is why it’s harder to hit the cue so it hits the 4 so it hits the 1 so it hits the 5 than to hit the cue so it hits the 5 (assuming the same total ball travel distance).
Quantum noise is no less capable of doing this than anything else. The reason macro objects look solid has little to do with special cancellation and a lot to do with how tightly bound solid objects are. I suppose that’s a special case of cancellation, but it’s a really special case.
Omega-like problems are hypotheticals, and speaking of quantum indeterminacy in respect to them is fighting the hypothetical. Some versions word it so if Omega can’t get a reliable answer he doesn’t even play the game, or withholds the money, or kicks you in the shins or something—but those are just ways of getting people to stop fighting the hypothetical.
Does the unpredictability of quantum events produce a butterfly effect on the macro level? i.e., since we can’t predict the result of a quantum process, and our brains are composed of eleventy zillion quantum processes, does that make our brains’ output inherently unpredictable as well? Or do the quantum effects somehow cancel out? It seems to me that they must cancel out in at least some circumstances or we wouldn’t have things like predictable ball collisions, spring behavior, etc.
If there is a butterfly effect, wouldn’t that have something to say about Omega problems (where the predictability of the brain is a given) and some of the nastier kinds of AI basilisks?
Some systems exhibit a butterfly effect (a.k.a. chaos); some don’t. The butterfly effect is where (arbitrarily) small changes to the conditions of the system can totally change it’s future course. The weather is a good example of this. The change caused by a butterfly flapping it’s wing differently will amplify itself until the entire Earth’s weather is different from what it would have been. But other systems aren’t like that. They’re more “stable”. For example if you change the position of any individual atom in my computer it won’t make any difference to the computations I’m running. Other things are predictable just because we don’t give time for any changes to develop. For example ball collisions are predictable, but if we study many ball collisions in a row, like a billiards “trick shot”, then hitting the initial ball slightly differently will make a huge difference.
You ask about quantum events. For chaotic systems, deviations caused by quantum events will indeed cause a butterfly effect.
So whether or not the brain is predictable depends on to what extent it’s chaotic, and to what extent it’s stable. I suspect that it’s chaotic, in the sense that a small tweak to it could totally change the way a thought process goes. But over time my brain will be predictable “on average”. I’ll behave in ways matching my personality. Similarly a butterfly flapping it’s wings might change when it rains, but it’ll still rain more in Bergen than the Sahara.
I don’t think this says much about Omega problems. Quantum butterfly effects will (I suspect) stop Omega exactly simulating my thought process, but I reckon it could still predict my choice with very high confidence just by considering my most likely lines of thought.
But it will change the weather just like the butterfly.
The butterfly effect kicks in wherever there’s something unstable—whenever there’s a system where little changes grow. Billiards balls do this, for instance, which is why it’s harder to hit the cue so it hits the 4 so it hits the 1 so it hits the 5 than to hit the cue so it hits the 5 (assuming the same total ball travel distance).
Quantum noise is no less capable of doing this than anything else. The reason macro objects look solid has little to do with special cancellation and a lot to do with how tightly bound solid objects are. I suppose that’s a special case of cancellation, but it’s a really special case.
Omega-like problems are hypotheticals, and speaking of quantum indeterminacy in respect to them is fighting the hypothetical. Some versions word it so if Omega can’t get a reliable answer he doesn’t even play the game, or withholds the money, or kicks you in the shins or something—but those are just ways of getting people to stop fighting the hypothetical.