I don’t know if the graph settles the question—is Moravec predicting AGI at “Human equivalence in a supercomputer” or “Human equivalence in a personal computer”? Hard to say from the graph.
The fact that he specifically talks about “compute power available to most researchers” makes it more clear what his predictions are. Taken literally that view would suggest something like: a trillion dollar computing budget spread across 10k researchers in 2010 would result in AGI in not-too-long, which looks a bit less plausible as a prediction but not out of the question.
I don’t know if the graph settles the question—is Moravec predicting AGI at “Human equivalence in a supercomputer” or “Human equivalence in a personal computer”? Hard to say from the graph.
The fact that he specifically talks about “compute power available to most researchers” makes it more clear what his predictions are. Taken literally that view would suggest something like: a trillion dollar computing budget spread across 10k researchers in 2010 would result in AGI in not-too-long, which looks a bit less plausible as a prediction but not out of the question.