I’m assuming that if a company is currently M number of months behind OpenAI (as measured by when OpenAI’s model achieved the capability level that this company’s best model has), it will take them M months to catch up, regardless of who else is pausing or not pausing. Of course, in real life this isn’t true for a number of reasons: limited compute to train and serve large models, talent “migrating” from a paused company to a racing one, not being able to distill competitor’s models, etc.
I’m assuming that if a company is currently M number of months behind OpenAI (as measured by when OpenAI’s model achieved the capability level that this company’s best model has), it will take them M months to catch up, regardless of who else is pausing or not pausing. Of course, in real life this isn’t true for a number of reasons: limited compute to train and serve large models, talent “migrating” from a paused company to a racing one, not being able to distill competitor’s models, etc.