Great illustration! This is a nice alternative to the way I usually visualize Simpson’s paradox, which involves the subgroup averages pulling the overall average proportionally to the sizes of the subgroups (then it’s possible to decrease both of the subgroup averages, but skew the sizes sufficiently towards the higher subgroup average that the overall average goes up).
It should definitely be possible to make a similar interactive illustration for a Bayesian update, where you could tweak the prior and the likelihood ratio using sliders.
Great illustration! This is a nice alternative to the way I usually visualize Simpson’s paradox, which involves the subgroup averages pulling the overall average proportionally to the sizes of the subgroups (then it’s possible to decrease both of the subgroup averages, but skew the sizes sufficiently towards the higher subgroup average that the overall average goes up).
It should definitely be possible to make a similar interactive illustration for a Bayesian update, where you could tweak the prior and the likelihood ratio using sliders.