I think it’s pretty clear we’re in the early stages of an intelligence explosion. Researchers are already sped up ~20% as of early February, so doubling times are shortening. Each doubling of time horizon increases researcher productivity by a greater amount than the previous doubling. There’s enough substitutivity that compute won’t be enough of a constraint to block a singularity.
I think it’s pretty clear we’re in the early stages of an intelligence explosion. Researchers are already sped up ~20% as of early February, so doubling times are shortening. Each doubling of time horizon increases researcher productivity by a greater amount than the previous doubling. There’s enough substitutivity that compute won’t be enough of a constraint to block a singularity.