If she does condition on being woken up, I think she still gets 1⁄2. I hate to keep repeating arguments, but what she knows when she is woken up is that she has been woken up at least once. If you just apply Bayes rule, you get 1⁄2.
If conditioning causes her to change her probability, it should do so in such a way that makes her more accurate. But as we see in the cancer problem, people with cancer give the same answer as people without.
Then you’d agree that with full memory, the patient would have something to update on?
Yes, but then we wouldn’t be talking about her credence on an awakening. We’d be talking about her credence on first waking and second waking. We’d treat them separately. With amnesia, 2 wakings are the same as 1. It’s really just one experience.
I’m not sure what more I can say without starting to repeat myself, too. All I can say at this point, having formalized my reasoning as both a Python program and an analytical table giving out the full joint distribution, is “Where did I make a mistake?”
Where’s the bug in the Python code? How do I change my joint distribution?
I like the version of your halfer variant version of your table. I still need to think about your distributions more though. I’m not sure it makes sense to have a variable ‘woken that day’ for this problem.
If she does condition on being woken up, I think she still gets 1⁄2. I hate to keep repeating arguments, but what she knows when she is woken up is that she has been woken up at least once. If you just apply Bayes rule, you get 1⁄2.
If conditioning causes her to change her probability, it should do so in such a way that makes her more accurate. But as we see in the cancer problem, people with cancer give the same answer as people without.
Yes, but then we wouldn’t be talking about her credence on an awakening. We’d be talking about her credence on first waking and second waking. We’d treat them separately. With amnesia, 2 wakings are the same as 1. It’s really just one experience.
Apply it to what terms?
I’m not sure what more I can say without starting to repeat myself, too. All I can say at this point, having formalized my reasoning as both a Python program and an analytical table giving out the full joint distribution, is “Where did I make a mistake?”
Where’s the bug in the Python code? How do I change my joint distribution?
I like the version of your halfer variant version of your table. I still need to think about your distributions more though. I’m not sure it makes sense to have a variable ‘woken that day’ for this problem.